The objective of the research study was to develop mathematical models of the growth of number of Listeria monocytogenes rods in cottage cheese. In the study, a primary Baranyi and Roberts model and a secondary Ratkowsky model were applied. The experimental data made it possible to construct prognostic models. A mean square error (MSE), bias (Bf), and accuracy (Af) factors were calculated and applied to assess the goodness-of-fit of the constructed models. Based on the predictions obtained, a mathematical and graphical validation was performed of the tertiary Combase Predictor (CP) model, which was based on the modified microbiological culture media; its usefulness was confirmed to predict the behaviour of bacteria of the species L. monocytogenes in cottage cheese. Then, using CP, possible technological errors were analyzed as was the break of the cold chain while distributing cottage cheese. It was proved that the changes in the composition and temperature during the production and distribution had a high impact on the microbiological stability and safety of the product.